Best index on aggregation with multiple match conditions

Following the entire explain output directly on production environment:

{
"stages" : [ 
    {
        "$cursor" : {
            "queryPlanner" : {
                "plannerVersion" : 1,
                "namespace" : "labid.outcomes",
                "indexFilterSet" : false,
                "parsedQuery" : {
                    "$and" : [ 
                        {
                            "__STATE__" : {
                                "$eq" : "PUBLIC"
                            }
                        }, 
                        {
                            "countryCode" : {
                                "$not" : {
                                    "$eq" : null
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    ]
                },
                "queryHash" : "850416C8",
                "planCacheKey" : "58935625",
                "winningPlan" : {
                    "stage" : "PROJECTION_SIMPLE",
                    "transformBy" : {
                        "success" : true,
                        "createdAt" : true,
                        "countryCode" : true,
                        "_id" : false
                    },
                    "inputStage" : {
                        "stage" : "FETCH",
                        "filter" : {
                            "countryCode" : {
                                "$not" : {
                                    "$eq" : null
                                }
                            }
                        },
                        "inputStage" : {
                            "stage" : "IXSCAN",
                            "keyPattern" : {
                                "__STATE__" : 1,
                                "createdAt" : -1
                            },
                            "indexName" : "state_createdAt",
                            "isMultiKey" : false,
                            "multiKeyPaths" : {
                                "__STATE__" : [],
                                "createdAt" : []
                            },
                            "isUnique" : false,
                            "isSparse" : false,
                            "isPartial" : false,
                            "indexVersion" : 2,
                            "direction" : "forward",
                            "indexBounds" : {
                                "__STATE__" : [ 
                                    "[\"PUBLIC\", \"PUBLIC\"]"
                                ],
                                "createdAt" : [ 
                                    "[MaxKey, MinKey]"
                                ]
                            }
                        }
                    }
                },
                "rejectedPlans" : [ 
                    {
                        "stage" : "PROJECTION_SIMPLE",
                        "transformBy" : {
                            "success" : true,
                            "createdAt" : true,
                            "countryCode" : true,
                            "_id" : false
                        },
                        "inputStage" : {
                            "stage" : "FETCH",
                            "filter" : {
                                "countryCode" : {
                                    "$not" : {
                                        "$eq" : null
                                    }
                                }
                            },
                            "inputStage" : {
                                "stage" : "IXSCAN",
                                "keyPattern" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : 1,
                                    "success" : 1
                                },
                                "indexName" : "state_success",
                                "isMultiKey" : false,
                                "multiKeyPaths" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : [],
                                    "success" : []
                                },
                                "isUnique" : false,
                                "isSparse" : false,
                                "isPartial" : false,
                                "indexVersion" : 2,
                                "direction" : "forward",
                                "indexBounds" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : [ 
                                        "[\"PUBLIC\", \"PUBLIC\"]"
                                    ],
                                    "success" : [ 
                                        "[MinKey, MaxKey]"
                                    ]
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }, 
                    {
                        "stage" : "PROJECTION_SIMPLE",
                        "transformBy" : {
                            "success" : true,
                            "createdAt" : true,
                            "countryCode" : true,
                            "_id" : false
                        },
                        "inputStage" : {
                            "stage" : "FETCH",
                            "inputStage" : {
                                "stage" : "IXSCAN",
                                "keyPattern" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : 1,
                                    "countryCode" : 1
                                },
                                "indexName" : "state_countryCode",
                                "isMultiKey" : false,
                                "multiKeyPaths" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : [],
                                    "countryCode" : []
                                },
                                "isUnique" : false,
                                "isSparse" : false,
                                "isPartial" : false,
                                "indexVersion" : 2,
                                "direction" : "forward",
                                "indexBounds" : {
                                    "__STATE__" : [ 
                                        "[\"PUBLIC\", \"PUBLIC\"]"
                                    ],
                                    "countryCode" : [ 
                                        "[MinKey, undefined)", 
                                        "(null, MaxKey]"
                                    ]
                                }
                            }
                        }
                    }
                ]
            },
            "executionStats" : {
                "executionSuccess" : true,
                "nReturned" : 2188033,
                "executionTimeMillis" : 8133,
                "totalKeysExamined" : 2189018,
                "totalDocsExamined" : 2189018,
                "executionStages" : {
                    "stage" : "PROJECTION_SIMPLE",
                    "nReturned" : 2188033,
                    "executionTimeMillisEstimate" : 1909,
                    "works" : 2189019,
                    "advanced" : 2188033,
                    "needTime" : 985,
                    "needYield" : 0,
                    "saveState" : 2279,
                    "restoreState" : 2279,
                    "isEOF" : 1,
                    "transformBy" : {
                        "success" : true,
                        "createdAt" : true,
                        "countryCode" : true,
                        "_id" : false
                    },
                    "inputStage" : {
                        "stage" : "FETCH",
                        "filter" : {
                            "countryCode" : {
                                "$not" : {
                                    "$eq" : null
                                }
                            }
                        },
                        "nReturned" : 2188033,
                        "executionTimeMillisEstimate" : 1437,
                        "works" : 2189019,
                        "advanced" : 2188033,
                        "needTime" : 985,
                        "needYield" : 0,
                        "saveState" : 2279,
                        "restoreState" : 2279,
                        "isEOF" : 1,
                        "docsExamined" : 2189018,
                        "alreadyHasObj" : 0,
                        "inputStage" : {
                            "stage" : "IXSCAN",
                            "nReturned" : 2189018,
                            "executionTimeMillisEstimate" : 413,
                            "works" : 2189019,
                            "advanced" : 2189018,
                            "needTime" : 0,
                            "needYield" : 0,
                            "saveState" : 2279,
                            "restoreState" : 2279,
                            "isEOF" : 1,
                            "keyPattern" : {
                                "__STATE__" : 1,
                                "createdAt" : -1
                            },
                            "indexName" : "state_createdAt",
                            "isMultiKey" : false,
                            "multiKeyPaths" : {
                                "__STATE__" : [],
                                "createdAt" : []
                            },
                            "isUnique" : false,
                            "isSparse" : false,
                            "isPartial" : false,
                            "indexVersion" : 2,
                            "direction" : "forward",
                            "indexBounds" : {
                                "__STATE__" : [ 
                                    "[\"PUBLIC\", \"PUBLIC\"]"
                                ],
                                "createdAt" : [ 
                                    "[MaxKey, MinKey]"
                                ]
                            },
                            "keysExamined" : 2189018,
                            "seeks" : 1,
                            "dupsTested" : 0,
                            "dupsDropped" : 0
                        }
                    }
                }
            }
        },
        "nReturned" : NumberLong(2188033),
        "executionTimeMillisEstimate" : NumberLong(7433)
    }, 
    {
        "$group" : {
            "_id" : "$countryCode",
            "count" : {
                "$sum" : {
                    "$const" : 1.0
                }
            }
        },
        "nReturned" : NumberLong(203),
        "executionTimeMillisEstimate" : NumberLong(8120)
    }
],
"serverInfo" : {
    "host" : "atlas-iddbm2-shard-00-01.ake5m.gcp.mongodb.net",
    "port" : 27017,
    "version" : "4.4.9",
    "gitVersion" : "b4048e19814bfebac717cf5a880076aa69aba481"
},
"ok" : 1.0,
"$clusterTime" : {
    "clusterTime" : Timestamp(1632748186, 1),
    "signature" : {
        "hash" : { "$binary" : "er1V/UEDRoO+EvH/KZ5Nh2jjYWA=", "$type" : "00" },
        "keyId" : NumberLong(6977486985841606664)
    }
},
"operationTime" : Timestamp(1632748186, 1)

}